PH Economy Slows Down—2nd Quarter of 2026

Photo via Manila Bulletin

The Philippine economy could be slowed down to as low as 1.42 percent in its slowest growth in the past 17 years during the second quarter of 2026, according to the congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (C.P.B.R.D).


In the latest report, the House of Representatives’ policy think tank said the Philippine economy likely grew between 1.42 percent and 4.07 percent in the second quarter of 2026, based on its forecasts for the country’s gross domestic product (G.D.P.).


Only one forecast projected growth above 4 percent, while most estimated the economy would expand by 2 percent to 3 percent, resulting in a median growth estimate of 2.68 percent. This suggests that economists expect the country’s economic growth to remain modest during the second quarter of 2026.


If the economy grows by only 1.42 percent, it would be the country’s weakest quarterly growth since early 2009, excluding the economic decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It would also fall below the President Marcos administration’s revised economic growth target of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent for 2026.


“Upon considering the higher-order consequences of the US-Iran Conflict, including but not limited to broad-based demand destruction and notably elevated input costs, the aforementioned forecasts can be revised downwards,” the C.P.B.R.D. said.


The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (B.S.P.) said that the country felt the effects of rising oil prices a lot more in the quarter because the Philippines has to import a lot of energy from other countries. So, when oil prices go up, it impacts the Philippines even more.


Rising oil prices have made everything more expensive, which makes it harder for businesses to operate. The Philippines is really affected by what happens to oil prices around the world.


The report said rising inflation has continued to reduce the purchasing power of Filipino households. As prices remain above the government’s target range of 2-4 percent, many families are finding it more difficult to afford basic goods and services


The C.P.B.R.D. said the economic slowdown is caused not only by the energy crisis but also by declining investor confidence, rising production costs, persistent inflation, and weaker investments, consumer spending, and job creation.

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