PAGASA Reports El Niño Conditions In Tropical Pacific

Photo via Inquirer.net

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has reported conditions consistent with El Niño in the tropical Pacific.

In a press release dated Tuesday, June 9, the weather bureau stated that most of their climate models suggested an over 80% likelihood of the conditions developing into a ‘full-blown El Niño event’, with it anticipated to persist until early 2027.

“In May 2026, the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reached the +0.5°C threshold,” PAGASA noted.

As defined by the agency, El Niño is the warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring climate pattern that shifts global weather patterns.

“It [El Niño] is characterized by warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and generally, cooler-than-average sea surface temperature over the Philippine Sea,” PAGASA added.

The phenomenon generally raises the probability of ‘below-normal rainfall conditions’ nationwide, along with the ‘risk of dry spells and drought’ in susceptible areas.

PAGASA, however, had stated that ‘normal rainfall conditions may still occur’, notably in the western parts of the country during the onset of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season and particularly strengthened by tropical cyclones.

“DOST – PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the ongoing El Niño situation and its associated impacts on the country’s climate,” they assured.

They also encouraged all government agencies and the public to prepare to mitigate El Niño’s potential impacts, particularly in areas prone to flooding during the Southwest Monsoon and to below-normal rainfall conditions.